The Ghost of Kavanaugh: Can Susan Collins Survive the Post-Roe Reality?

The End of the Middle Road

For decades, Senator Susan Collins of Maine has navigated the U.S. Senate by positioning herself as a moderate gatekeeper—a Republican who could be relied upon to protect civil liberties and reproductive rights. However, as she launches her bid for a sixth term, that carefully curated brand is facing its most significant structural threat to date.

According to reporting from the Associated Press, Collins is being shadowed by her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. While that vote was controversial at the time, the subsequent 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has retroactively changed the stakes of her legislative record. The AP notes that for many Maine voters, the abstract debate over judicial philosophy has been replaced by the concrete reality of lost constitutional protections, leaving Collins to answer for her role in enabling the current conservative supermajority.

Who Benefits and Who is Harmed

The primary beneficiaries of this shift are national and state-level Democrats, who no longer have to litigate Collins’s character but can instead focus on the tangible outcomes of her votes. By framing the election as a referendum on the Supreme Court’s direction, challengers can bypass Collins’s reputation for constituent service and focus on the systemic shift in American law. Labor unions and reproductive healthcare advocates also benefit from a clearer ideological battlefield, as the "moderate" label becomes harder to maintain under the weight of the Dobbs decision.

Conversely, the political harm falls squarely on the coalition of independent and ticket-splitting voters that Collins has relied on for thirty years. These voters, who often prioritize stability and incrementalism, now find themselves caught between a candidate they know and a legal reality they largely oppose. The AP report highlights that even in a state with a strong tradition of independent-minded politics, the nationalization of the abortion issue has made it difficult for Collins to maintain her "pro-choice" credentials while having voted for the judges who dismantled those very rights.

The Credibility Gap

The analytical core of this conflict lies in the concept of "judicial temperament." During the Kavanaugh hearings, Collins famously argued that the judge had personally assured her he considered Roe v. Wade to be "settled law." The subsequent reversal of that precedent has created a credibility gap that is difficult to bridge with standard campaign rhetoric.

From a progressive lens, this story illustrates the danger of prioritizing private assurances from judicial nominees over the public, long-term goals of the political movements that produce those nominees. Collins’s predicament suggests that in a post-Roe era, the "pro-choice Republican" may be an endangered species, not because of a change in their personal beliefs, but because their party's judicial project has achieved its primary goal.

What to watch next

1. Suburban Shift: Watch for polling in Maine’s Second Congressional District versus the more liberal First District. Collins needs to maintain high margins in the suburbs of Portland—traditionally her stronghold—where the reproductive rights issue resonates most strongly.

2. The "Collins Defense": Observe whether Collins attempts to distance herself from the current Court by supporting federal legislation to codify abortion rights. Whether such a move is seen as a genuine policy shift or a desperate electoral pivot will determine her standing with independent voters.

3. Judicial Vacancies: If a Supreme Court vacancy occurs during the campaign cycle, Collins will be forced to take a stance that will either alienate her base or further inflame the voters who are still angry over the Kavanaugh confirmation.