The Failed Fantasy of Cold War Restoration

For decades, a specific faction of the American political establishment has operated under the delusion that if we simply squeeze the Cuban people hard enough, a Jeffersonian democracy will spontaneously bloom from the rubble of a collapsed state. Nine months ago, as domestic instability in Havana spiked, that chorus reached a fever pitch. But as recent reporting from The Atlantic makes clear, the predicted collapse has once again failed to materialize, leaving behind nothing but a humanitarian crisis and a strategic vacuum.

According to The Atlantic, the initial optimism surrounding imminent regime change has given way to a sobering reality. The article, titled "Waiting on Marco," suggests that the political calculations of figures like Senator Marco Rubio have long prioritized the aesthetics of hardline opposition over the actual well-being of the Cuban people or the stability of the region. This is not just a failure of prediction; it is a failure of morality and imagination.

The Cost of the Squeeze

The progressive critique of American policy toward Cuba is not a defense of the Cuban government’s restrictions on civil liberties. Rather, it is an acknowledgment that the U.S. embargo is a blunt instrument that harms the most vulnerable while providing the ruling class with a convenient scapegoat for every domestic failure. By maintaining a state of economic siege, we are not empowering dissidents; we are fueling migration crises and pushing the island further into the orbits of global adversaries.

We have seen this cycle repeat for sixty years. Each time a new wave of protests emerges, Washington hawks promise that the "tipping point" is just weeks away. They advocate for tighter sanctions, restricted remittances, and increased isolation. When the dust settles, the people are hungrier, the hospitals have fewer supplies, and the government in Havana remains in place. The Atlantic’s reporting underscores that this "waiting game" is a hollow strategy that serves domestic electoral interests in Florida far more than it serves the cause of democracy.

Diplomacy as a Radical Act

A progressive foreign policy must be rooted in the reality of human needs. If the goal is truly to support the Cuban people, our primary tools should be engagement, trade, and the free flow of information. The brief thaw during the mid-2010s showed that when the U.S. relaxes its grip, it creates space for small businesses to grow, for families to reunite, and for the Cuban people to build a degree of independence from the state.

Closing those doors under the guise of "toughness" has only served to strengthen the most hardline elements within the Cuban administration. When we cut off legal channels for support, we force the island to rely on whoever is willing to fill the void. The current policy is not a strategy; it is a fossilized remnant of the Cold War that ignores the interconnected challenges of the 21st century, from climate change to public health.

Beyond the Cold War Lens

The obsession with regime change also prevents the United States from addressing the broader systemic issues in the Caribbean. We cannot solve the regional migration crisis while simultaneously trying to implode the economy of one of the largest nations in the Caribbean Basin. We cannot advocate for human rights while denying millions of people access to basic medicines and fuel through secondary sanctions.

It is time to stop "waiting on Marco" or any other politician who views foreign policy through the lens of 1960. The failure of the last nine months to produce a transition of power should be the final piece of evidence needed to retire this failed doctrine. Real progress is made through the slow, difficult work of diplomacy and the recognition of sovereignty—not through the hope that misery will eventually lead to a miracle.

The bottom line

The Biden-Harris administration and Congress must immediately move to de-list Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, lift the restrictions on remittances and travel, and begin a process of normalized diplomatic engagement. We must prioritize the humanitarian needs of the Cuban people over the failed political theater of economic warfare.